Apple TV not likely to become a television set

This report has been getting some attention about Apple getting into the TV market. While folks love to speculate about Apple getting into all sorts of things, from clock radios to TV sets, I don’t think we’ll see this kind of Apple TV anytime soon.

The TV business is a tough business, hard to differentiate and commodity driven. Adding a combination of existing Apple TV or DVR features would just drive those prices up further. Consumers have also been very reluctant to buy into converged TV solutions. There’s a lot of reasons why folks prefer hooking stuff up as opposed to integration. Not to mention TV replacement cycles are slow, much flower than PCs or phones. Now as with anything Apple related, perhaps there’s some twist Cupertino has that would change things but I don’t think so. If anything, we’d see testing in a current standalone form factor before Apple would dive into the TV biz.

Which raises my question. Would you replace your current TV with an Apple screen with Apple TV/DVR integrated? Not me, I just bought a new set two years ago and I have no intention of replacing it anytime soon.

I want a pony

Fascinating look at Apple’s design process.

Quote of the day

Comes from Ian Fogg.

"Irony of day: I’m using the Microsoft Arc mouse with an Apple Macbook that has Linux, two Windows installs & Mac OS on it = Branding mess"

Windows 7 Beta 1: Enough with the incrementalism

Latest Computerworld column. Bottom line?

If you’ve been frustrated running Vista and can’t downgrade to XP, Win 7 looks like a good upgrade bet. But for machines that run XP, especially if they have SP3 installed, it’s going to be much harder to justify an upgrade in terms of both time and cost. A better version of Vista isn’t what the market is looking for.  Microsoft has run the course with this sort of incrementalism. It needs to really rethink the role of the operating system, finally drop legacy compatibility and take us to the next level of computing. Win 7 is a nice evolution of the Windows family at time when Microsoft needs a real revolution in its offerings.

What’s the correct strategy for Zune?

Ever since Microsoft reported a 100 million dollar decline in Zune revenue, there’s been some question about whether we’ve seen the last of Zune from Microsoft. In a fairly candid statement, Microsoft says that’s not the case. Adam Sohn on the Zune team makes it pretty clear.

We have a broader vision than just selling MP3 players, we are thinking about more connected entertainment experiences driven by the Zune software and services for not only Zune device owners but other ‘tuners’ as well. This vision requires continued investment in the business as we grow the capabilities of what the service needs to do for other screens and devices.

I’ve speculated some different directions Microsoft could take Zune. One way Microsoft could go is uniting the Zune desktop client and Windows Media Player. It makes no sense for them to have two desktop software plays. Beyond that, they could the Zune software and port it to Windows Mobile and make that the de-facto mobile media platform. While Microsoft could continue to support the legacy Zune devices, this could serve as an exit strategy from a device business that has not served them well and allow them to make their stand in the place that makes the most sense for them, in software as a client on their phone platform. But my current thinking is Microsoft is going to stay in the hardware business and that means that they will need to re-think what devices they need to bring to market. Previous generations were OK but for the most part, reflected where Apple had been with the iPod 12-18 months prior.

Zune hardware isn’t going to help Microsoft win against Apple at this point without a major differentiation. It’s got to be about software services on desktop and mobile making the case. Doing so would solve the weak media story that Windows Mobile now tells and at the same time, resolves the desktop mess they’ve created with competing platforms. It’s also much more in line with Microsoft’s DNA. If it’s going to be hardware business as well, it means being able to strongly add value and clearly differentiate from the iPod

Is Zune dead? No, I don’t think so but I do think it could be evolving beyond being a runner up to Apple to a credible story for Microsoft to tell, linking the desktop and mobile devices through client software. There could even be a compelling hardware play here as well. Time is running out. This fall is the time where Redmond is either going to make some inroads against Apple or cede the market for portable media.

If you were in charge of Zune, what would your strategy be?

Multiple flavors are great for ice cream, not operating systems

Can it really be? Is Microsoft really looking to release six, yes six versions of Windows 7? One of the big issues with Windows Vista was the confusing matrix of SKUs and feature sets and it looks like Microsoft still hasn’t learned the lessons of Vista. While some might argue that most users will only be facing the choice of two SKUs, namely home and professional, that’s not true (and two is too many). First, the breakdown between home and professional assumes an artificial line between business users and consumers. What if I’m a business user by day who needs access to things like domains and programs like BitLocker? Or perhaps I’m a consumer in the evening who’d like to use Windows Media Center. It’s not about business or consumer, it’s about people and Microsoft’s SKUs aren’t people centric. (The answer to my question above is you can’t get both feature sets in either business or pro, once again you need to go to ultimate). Don’t even get me started on the idea of Windows Starter edition, designed for emerging markets where no one wants to run more than three apps at the same time as the new OS of choice for netbooks. Looks like now I’m at four choices. Of course, there’s also enterprise for business to consider and let’s not forget about basic, because in a down economic market, there’s going to be a lot of folks looking to save wherever they can on purchases. So in the end, it’s really about six choices that users have to wade through.

I won’t compare Windows to OS X but the fact that Apple simply offers one SKU, with attractive license terms to home users, with all features intact is something Microsoft needs to learn from. At a time when Microsoft is doing quite a bit to learn from the mistakes it made with Vista, it’s disappointing to see one of the biggest mistakes being replicated. There’s still plenty of time to change before release, here’s hoping that Redmond fixes this before the folks in Cupertino turn this into their next commercial.